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CHAPTER 04LESSON 013 MIN READ

Crack spreads

The tradeable proxy for a refining margin, and the ways it is not one.

WHY IT MATTERS

A crack spread is a quick price comparison between crude and products. It is useful, but it leaves out the refinery's actual yields and costs.

A crack spread is the value of refined products minus the crude used to make them. It is the market's standard shorthand for refining profitability and the instrument a refiner actually hedges with.

The best-known version is the 3-2-1: three barrels of crude producing two barrels of gasoline and one of distillate. Those proportions are a rough stand-in for a typical US refinery's light product yield, chosen because they are simple and because the underlying contracts are liquid.

3-2-1 crack = (2 x gasoline$/bbl + 1 x distillate$/bbl - 3 x crude$/bbl) / 3
gasoline $/bbl
RBOB in $/gal multiplied by 42
distillate $/bbl
ULSD in $/gal multiplied by 42
divide by 3
expresses the result per barrel of crude run
Products are quoted per gallon and crude per barrel. Skipping the 42 is the single most common arithmetic error in the whole subject.
WORKED EXAMPLEA worked 3-2-1
WTI$70.00 /bbl
RBOB$2.20 /gal, so $92.40 /bbl
ULSD$2.45 /gal, so $102.90 /bbl
Product value(2 x 92.40) + 102.90 = $287.70
Crude cost3 x 70.00 = $210.00
($287.70 - $210.00) / 3 = $25.90 per barrel
Illustrative prices, chosen to show the arithmetic. Not a market observation.

Now the caveats, because a crack spread is a proxy and the gaps matter.

The regional variants exist because the assumptions differ by region. A European refinery skews toward distillate and prices off Brent, so a 3-2-1 built on WTI and US products describes it poorly. Singapore cracks are struck against Dubai. Using the wrong regional crack to reason about a refiner is a category error that produces confident, wrong conclusions.

Cracks also carry the seasonal signature of the products underneath them. Gasoline cracks typically strengthen into the northern summer driving season and weaken after it; distillate cracks strengthen into winter heating demand. Those patterns are strong enough to be worth knowing and weak enough that trading them naively is a good way to lose money in the year the pattern does not hold. See demand seasonality.

CRKCrack SpreadsLIVE FROM THE DESKOpen on the desk
Gasoline, distillate and 3-2-1 cracks, with the unit conversion already applied.