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CHAPTER 06LESSON 022 MIN READ

Days of cover

Stocks normalised by demand, and why the raw level misleads.

WHY IT MATTERS

A stockpile lasts a different amount of time at different demand rates. Days of cover puts inventory and consumption on the same scale.

Days of cover expresses inventory as the number of days of demand it would satisfy. It is inventory divided by a daily consumption rate, and it exists because the raw stock level answers the wrong question.

days of cover = inventory level / daily demand
inventory level
barrels held
daily demand
consumption rate over the relevant period
The denominator is what makes the number comparable across time and across regions of different size.

The reason to bother is that both the numerator and the world grow. A stock level that was comfortable when demand was seventy million barrels a day is a different thing when demand is a hundred million. Comparing today's inventory to a level from twenty years ago without normalising compares a buffer against a much larger flow, and concludes that stocks are high when the cover may be unchanged or lower.

The same argument applies across regions. Two countries holding identical volumes have very different security positions if one consumes twice as much as the other. Cover is the comparable quantity; volume is not.

The metric is also used in a regulatory sense that is worth not confusing with the analytical one. IEA member countries hold an obligation to maintain emergency reserves equivalent to ninety days of net imports, which is a rule about a specific definition of cover, computed on net imports rather than on consumption. A country can be comfortable on one definition and short on the other.

COVDays of CoverLIVE FROM THE DESKOpen on the desk
OECD stocks in days of demand, with the contribution of each term shown.