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CHAPTER 02LESSON 053 MIN READ

Roll yield

What maintaining a position costs, before the price does anything.

WHY IT MATTERS

Keeping futures exposure means replacing expiring contracts. The price gap at each replacement can add to or subtract from the return.

A futures contract expires. Holding continuous exposure therefore means periodically closing the expiring month and opening the next one, and because those two months trade at different prices, the act of rolling has a cost or a benefit of its own. That is roll yield, and over any meaningful horizon it can dominate the flat price entirely.

The sign follows the curve. In contango you sell the cheap expiring month and buy the dearer next one, so every roll is a small loss. In backwardation you sell the dearer month and buy the cheaper one, so every roll is a small gain. Nothing about the spot price needs to change for either to accrue.

WORKED EXAMPLEA year of rolling in mild contango
Spot price, start of year$70.00
Spot price, end of year$70.00
Average monthly contango$0.45
Rolls per year12
Roughly $5.40 per barrel of roll cost, on an unchanged spot price
Illustrative arithmetic, not a market observation. The point is the magnitude: roll yield is not a rounding error.

This is the mechanism behind a long-standing complaint about commodity index products. A long-only index has to roll, it rolls on a published schedule, and in a persistently contangoed market it bleeds. The index is not badly built; it is doing exactly what it says. The mistake is reading its return as a proxy for the spot price return, which it is not and cannot be.

For a desk the practical consequence is that structure and level need separate views. "I think crude goes up" and "I think the front spread tightens" are different trades with different risks, and a long outright position in a contangoed market is quietly the sum of both: a bet on the level, plus a standing short position in carry. See liquidity for why the roll also has a transaction cost that varies with where you do it.

TRMTerm StructureLIVE FROM THE DESKOpen on the desk
The calendar spreads that determine roll cost, month by month.