petralLEARNDesk ↗
CHAPTER 02LESSON 033 MIN READ

Storage and carry

The physical cost that anchors the whole curve.

WHY IT MATTERS

Holding a barrel costs money and capacity. The forward price has to cover those costs before a storage trade makes sense.

Carry is the total cost of holding a barrel from one date to another. It has three components, and all three are observable rather than estimated: the rent on the tank, the insurance on the contents, and the interest on the capital the barrel represents.

full carry = tank rental + insurance + financing cost
tank rental
$/bbl/month, set by regional storage market
insurance
small, roughly proportional to value
financing
short rate x barrel value x time
Every term is a present-day observable. Nothing here is a forecast, which is why the boundary it defines is enforceable.

Carry is what turns the forward curve from an opinion into a constrained object. The gap between two months is bounded above by full carry, because a wider gap is a riskless trade for anyone who can rent a tank. That is the argument in contango, and it is the reason the upside of a calendar spread is capped while the downside is not.

The financing term is the one people forget, and it is the reason curve structure moves when nothing physical has changed. A rise in short rates raises the cost of carrying a barrel, which widens the contango a market can sustain. The curve got steeper and no tank moved. This matters for any relationship you try to fit between structure and fundamentals: rates are a live input, and omitting them attributes their effect to whatever else you did include.

Storage capacity is not a single number either. There is tankage at the delivery point, tankage in the wider region, and there is floating storage, each with its own cost and each available at a different point in the curve. The market works down that ladder: cheap local tanks first, then regional, then ships. The steepness of the contango at any moment tells you roughly which rung is being bid for.

STOStorage & CarryLIVE FROM THE DESKOpen on the desk
The board's carry-versus-storage-cost read for the front spreads.